Dear EarthTalk: What is the issue with the Gulf Stream in relation to global warming? Could it really stop or disappear altogether? If so, what are the ramifications of this? -- Lynn Eytel, Clark Summit, PA
Part of the Ocean Conveyor Belt-a great river of ocean water that traverses the saltwater sections of the globe-the Gulf Stream stretches from the Gulf of Mexico up the eastern seaboard of the United States, where it splits, one stream heading for Canada's Atlantic coast and the other towards Europe. By taking warm water from the equatorial Pacific Ocean and carrying it into the colder North Atlantic, the Gulf Stream contributes to warming up the eastern United States and northwestern Europe by about five degrees Celsius (roughly nine degrees Fahrenheit), making those regions much more hospitable than they would be otherwise.
Melting Glaciers Could Disrupt Warm Gulf Stream Currents
Among the greatest fears scientists have about global warming is that it will cause the massive ice fields of Greenland and other locales at the northern end of the Gulf Stream to melt rapidly, sending surges of cold water into the North Atlantic. In fact, quite a bit of melting has already started. The dense, cold melt water from Greenland sinks down, and interferes with the flow of the Ocean Conveyor Belt. One doomsday scenario is that such an event would stop or disrupt the whole Ocean Conveyor Belt system, plunging Western Europe into new climates, including an ice age, without the benefit of the warmth delivered by the Gulf Stream.
Gulf Stream May Affect Climate Change Worldwide
“The possibility exists that a disruption of the Atlantic currents might have implications far beyond a colder northwest Europe, perhaps bringing dramatic climatic changes to the entire planet,” says Bill McGuire, a geophysical hazards professor at University College London's Benfield Hazard Research Centre.
Computer models simulating ocean-atmosphere climate dynamics indicate that the North Atlantic region would cool between three and five degrees Celsius if Conveyor circulation were totally disrupted. “It would produce winters twice as cold as the worst winters on record in the eastern United States in the past century,” says Robert Gagosian of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.
Gulf Stream Linked to Previous Temperature Changes
The slowing of the Gulf Stream has been directly linked with dramatic regional cooling before, says McGuire. “Just 10,000 years ago, during a climatic cold snap known as the Younger Dryas, the current was severely weakened, causing northern European temperatures to fall by as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit,” he says. And 10,000 years earlier-at the height of the last ice age when most of northwestern Europe was a frozen wasteland-the Gulf Stream had just two-thirds of the strength it has now.
Could Weakened Gulf Stream Help Offset Global Warming?
A less dramatic prediction sees the Gulf Stream slowing down but not stopping entirely, causing the east coast of North America and northwestern Europe to suffer only minor winter temperature dips. And some scientists even put forth the optimistic hypothesis that the cooling effects of a weakened Gulf Stream could actually help offset the higher temperatures otherwise caused by global warming.
Global Warming: A Planetary Experiment
To McGuire, these uncertainties underscore that fact that human-induced global warming is “nothing more nor less than a great planetary experiment, many of the outcomes of which we cannot predict.” Whether or not we can trim our addiction to fossil fuels might just be the determining factor in whether global warming wreaks havoc around the world, or just causes us minor annoyances.
EarthTalk is a regular feature of E/The Environmental Magazine. Selected EarthTalk columns are reprinted on About Environmental Issues by permission of the editors of E.
Edited by Frederic Beaudry